What is opening-hand probability?
Learn how deck size and opening-hand size affect consistency.
Define your opening as a condition
Opening-hand probability is the chance of satisfying a user-defined starting condition by a chosen turn. It can represent one target card, an A-plus-B combination, tagged cards, or cards needed to pay a cost.
Clear conditions make comparisons meaningful. Keep the same condition and target turn when comparing deck versions before and after an event.
Deck size and opening hand
With the same number of target copies, a smaller deck or a larger opening hand increases the chance of seeing a target. Additional draws behave like a larger opening hand for simple conditions, but searches and costs require a full sequence model.